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Nack/Koca/Chow/Kaza/Hagan Please could you shed some light on this?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Sunday, 13 June 2010, at 10:01 p.m.

In Response To: Nack/Koca/Chow/Kaza/Hagan Please could you shed some light on this? (Alejandro)

Suppose player A doubles at 51%, and you double at 75%.

Suppose the game is going well and you get your double at 75%. Player A would have doubled at 51% already. You are not at all better but seem to be thinking that you are since the double was "more efficient". It is of paramount importnatce to realize that the situations then are exactly the same.

So why not double at 51% in a money game? There is a downside to consider. If you go on to lose, obviously you would rather not have doubled. But at max of 2 score a good opponent would double in and the game will end with cube on 2 anyways so the downside does not manifest itself.

So why is it bad to wait until 75%? Well if you knew you could then there would be no loss but there will almost necessarily be a risk of a market loss. There will be games where all of a sudden you are at say 85% and then your strategy cost you. You would have won 1 unit instead of being in the much better situation of playing a game for 2 units in which you are 85% favorite.

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