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Not a huge amount of equity at stake here; nevertheless...

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 12:44 p.m.

In Response To: Not a huge amount of equity at stake here; nevertheless... (Daniel Murphy)

After 6-1 White has 12 shots in the first position, 15 in the second. Other hitting numbers break down like this: 6-2 (2,12); 6-5 (15,2); 5-1 (15,16); 4-2 (15,16); 2-2 (2,12); 3-3 (3,0); 6-6 (13,0). There's no difference on 6-3 and 6-4 of course.

Unless I'm miscalculating something these numbers give a very tiny edge to the second position, something like 2 fewer return hits out of 1296. It's hard for me to see how this accounts for any part of the difference between the two plays.

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