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BGonline.org Forums
Rehashing "Luck"
Posted By: Ralph Byrns
Date: Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 9:19 p.m.
People who don't believe in luck probably believe in universal cosmic fairness and a God who does not roll dice (per Einstein vs. quantum mechanics). Borrowing from the logic of efficient markets theory, if precision (unbiased) dice are used then, ex ante [per-game], the expected value of luck for either player is zero. However, the ex post probability that luck did not exist is also zero (just as the likelihood of any draw from a probability function based on any continuous variable has a delta value arbitrarily close to zero). Just as disparities in skill affect the likely outcome of a match, luck is also a factor. To assert that, ex post (after a game or set of rolls), luck cannot skew the outcome is equivalent to asserting, for example, that jokers and antijokers rolled by one player are perfectly offset by antijokers or jokers rolled by the other player. Perfectly offset? Imperfect offsets imply that there is a finite probability that I might beat Stick in a tournament.
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