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Match cube: 8-14/25

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 27 June 2010, at 4:37 p.m.

In Response To: Match cube: 8-14/25 (christian munk-christensen)

Does Blue have a take? His basic 2-cube takepoint's the normal 25%, the 2-cube gammon prices slightly favor the trailer ATS by something like 54%/48%, and recube vig is reduced because of his lead in the match. What kind of g chances for both sides here? White wins some when he rolls an immediate 2 but not many if he doesn't. Blue wins some as well since some of his wins are when he hits a fly shot and White has a bunch of other blots around the board. I think both sides win about the same number of g's here, so Blue's basic takepoint is just a little over 25%. Redoubling vig is reduced for Blue but it's not eliminated so I'll guess it's worth 2% making Blue's gammon and cube-adjusted takepoint around 23%. I'd guess he wins 10% if White rolls a 2 and probably 9/25 non-deuces, so it sure looks like a take to me.

Should White sent it over? The eleven 2s are big mkt losers plus there's the non 2 - D2 or 54 sequence. That's over 13 mkt losers and I think that's enough to justify a double. Plus there's the bluff vig since not everyone will take this.

D/T looks right to me.

Messages In This Thread

• Match cube: 8-14/25
  christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 27 June 2010, at 2:39 p.m.
  • Match cube: 8-14/25
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 27 June 2010, at 4:15 p.m.
    • Match cube: 8-14/25
      christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 27 June 2010, at 4:23 p.m.
      • Match cube: 8-14/25
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 27 June 2010, at 4:41 p.m.
  • Match cube: 8-14/25
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 27 June 2010, at 4:37 p.m.
    • Match cube: 8-14/25
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 June 2010, at 5:31 p.m.