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XG question: Double point at -2,-2

Posted By: Andreas
Date: Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 5:12 p.m.

At -2-2 the minimum double point in gammon free positions is ca. 41% winning chances as discussed e.g. by Trice and Kleinman, see e.g."...but only the hogs..".

Below the opponent might lose his market, above oneself is at this risk. Nevertheless GNUBG and XG (-> analyze/cube information) announce "50%" as the doubling point.

Right? Wrong?

The example below demonstrates the DP = 41%

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 2 point match pip: 84 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-AAABBC-CB------cb-dcba---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:2:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	40,81% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	59,19% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	-0,184
Double:	-0,521
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	-0,531 (-0,010)
Double/Take:	-0,521
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+1,521)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• XG question: Double point at -2,-2
  Andreas -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 5:12 p.m.
  • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
    Neil Robins -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 5:40 p.m.
    • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
      Andreas -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 6:28 p.m.
  • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 6:29 p.m.
    • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
      Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 6:38 p.m.
    • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
      Fabrice Liardet -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 9:17 a.m.
      • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
        Stick -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 11:36 a.m.
        • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
          Fabrice Liardet -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 12:05 p.m.
      • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 12:38 p.m.
        • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
          Fabrice Liardet -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 1:19 p.m.
          • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
            Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 2:10 p.m.
            • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 3:16 p.m.
              • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                Bob Koca -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 3:19 p.m.
              • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                Nack Ballard -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 7:20 p.m.
                • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 7:24 p.m.
                  • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 7:54 p.m.
                • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 12:11 a.m.
                  • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 1:38 a.m.
                    • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 1:45 a.m.
              • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 4:13 a.m.
                • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 5:15 a.m.
                  • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 9:36 a.m.
                    • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 11:01 a.m.
                      • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
                        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 4:55 p.m.
                  • Spoilers
                    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 11:35 a.m.
                    • Spoilers
                      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 5:37 p.m.
                      • Spoilers
                        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 8:59 p.m.
            • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
              Fabrice Liardet -- Monday, 5 July 2010, at 4:06 p.m.
  • XG question: Double point at -2,-2
    Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 6:44 p.m.
    • below 38%
      Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 8:02 p.m.
      • below 38%
        Christian Plenz -- Sunday, 4 July 2010, at 8:06 p.m.
        • below 38%
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 9:24 a.m.
          • below 38%
            Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 9:43 a.m.
            • below 38%
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 9:48 a.m.
              • below 38%
                Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 7 July 2010, at 8:44 a.m.
          • below 38%
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 July 2010, at 9:46 a.m.