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Catching up on OLM Rollouts

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Friday, 9 July 2010, at 8:46 p.m.

I've caught up with all OLM rollouts from the last couple of weeks, and have posted them in their respective threads. For your viewing convenience, here they are together (thanks to the wonders of cut & paste):

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June 24

The score (after 3 games) is: XG Roller+ 2, BGO Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 29: BGO Readers to play 46

XG Roller+	105
BGO Readers	138
Position ID: g3cPBgBsu8CAEQ Match ID: QQn6ASAAIAAA

• BGO Readers moves 13/9 13/7

1.	Rollout1	13/9 13/7	eq: -0.841
	Player: Opponent: 29.25% (G:4.60% B:0.13%) 70.75% (G:6.55% B:0.13%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.845...-0.837) Duration: 1 hour 48 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 6/2	eq: -0.883 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 29.08% (G:4.56% B:0.21%) 70.92% (G:9.10% B:0.23%) Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.890...-0.876) Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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June 29

The score (after 3 games) is: XG Roller+ 2, BGO Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 31: XG Roller+ doubles to 4

XG Roller+	105
BGO Readers	128
Position ID: bLsJgBGDdw8GAA Match ID: ARngASAAIAAA

• BGO Readers accepts

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	70.70% (G: 6.63% B: 0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.30% (G: 4.68% B: 0.15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.58% (G: 6.64% B: 0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.42% (G: 4.54% B: 0.19%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.438
Redouble:	+0.986
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.842 (-0.022)
Redouble/Take:	+0.864
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.136)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.004 (+0.838...+0.846)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.006 (+0.859...+0.870)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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June 30

The score (after 3 games) is: XG Roller+ 2, BGO Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 37: BGO Readers on roll, cube decision?

XG Roller+	113
BGO Readers	118
Position ID: g3sfAEDadgOAAw Match ID: UgngASAAIAAA

• BGO Readers doubles

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	83.44% (G: 27.24% B: 0.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	16.56% (G: 2.45% B: 0.10%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	84.64% (G: 28.36% B: 0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	15.36% (G: 2.82% B: 0.13%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.871
Redouble:	+1.312
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.976 (-0.024)
Redouble/Take:	+1.209 (+0.209)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.003 (+0.973...+0.978)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.005 (+1.203...+1.214)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 01 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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July 1

The score (after 4 games) is: XG Roller+ 2, BGO Readers 8 (match to 15 points)

Move number 5: BGO Readers to play 26

XG Roller+	166
BGO Readers	146
Position ID: 4HPwYCDgc/ALAA Match ID: cAn5ASAAQAAA

• BGO Readers moves 14/8 13/11

1.	Rollout1	14/8 13/11	eq: +0.122
	Player: Opponent: 55.89% (G:13.02% B:0.78%) 44.11% (G:10.34% B:0.39%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.114...+0.130) Duration: 14 hours 49 minutes
2.	Rollout1	14/6	eq: +0.035 (-0.087)
	Player: Opponent: 54.08% (G:12.22% B:0.68%) 45.92% (G:11.95% B:0.41%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.027...+0.043) Duration: 8 hours 14 minutes
3.	Rollout1	14/8 6/4	eq: +0.002 (-0.120)
	Player: Opponent: 53.31% (G:11.24% B:0.68%) 46.69% (G:11.65% B:0.40%) Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.006...+0.010) Duration: 14 hours 41 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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July 2

The score (after 4 games) is: XG Roller+ 2, BGO Readers 8 (match to 15 points)

Move number 7: BGO Readers to play 25

XG Roller+	159
BGO Readers	138
Position ID: 0OvgYCDg88gHAA Match ID: cAn1ASAAQAAA

• BGO Readers moves 13/11 13/8

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/1*	eq: +0.240
	Player: Opponent: 58.84% (G:13.36% B:0.68%) 41.16% (G:9.80% B:0.36%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.232...+0.248) Duration: 11 hours 24 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 13/8	eq: +0.197 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 57.61% (G:12.31% B:0.61%) 42.39% (G:9.93% B:0.35%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.189...+0.205) Duration: 4 hours 53 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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July 4

The score (after 4 games) is: XG Roller+ 2, BGO Readers 8 (match to 15 points)

Move number 9: BGO Readers to play 12

XG Roller+	155
BGO Readers	131
Position ID: sOvEYCDg8zEHAA Match ID: cInoASAAQAAA

• BGO Readers moves 13/11 6/5

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: +0.015
	Player: Opponent: 53.26% (G:10.66% B:0.52%) 46.74% (G:11.46% B:0.40%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.007...+0.023) Duration: 4 hours 31 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/5	eq: -0.032 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 52.29% (G:11.06% B:0.58%) 47.71% (G:12.12% B:0.45%) Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.040...-0.024) Duration: 4 hours 15 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Catching up on OLM Rollouts
  Jason Lee -- Friday, 9 July 2010, at 8:46 p.m.
  • Good work...thanks, Jason! *NM*
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 10 July 2010, at 2:34 a.m.