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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 3 October 2006, at 4:51 a.m.

In Response To: 21$-65R-42? (Stick)

Surprising result for most people as I've seen countless people snatch n' play 11/5. It's true it's early in the game and the five point is more valuable than the four point but here the distribution is better if you make the four and you build a board much quicker by making the four naturally and leaving the five slotted, which you're basically sure to cover next turn if missed, and if you are you'll have a fair amount of returns from all your outfield coverage; attack one, block two! If you make the five here you give up outfield coverage and you have to roll a perfecta to make the next point in line, the 4 pt.

Money Game
156
164
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/4 6/4 0.104
0.6% 16.5% 52.0% 48.0% 12.5% 0.8%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.079 0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 146072 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 11/5 0.069 (-0.036)
0.5% 14.9% 50.7% 49.3% 10.6% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.055 0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 183166 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
Speed Parameter: Precise.

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