Slotting (13/11 8/5) has got to be the best play at gammon go. Take a look at the probability distributions and compare this play's gammon wins and losses to the others. I certainly realize that these probability distributions would be a bit different if the games were rolled out at the GG score, but even so, it is a very safe bet that slotting is best by a lot at GG. Also, slotting with 21 in this position would probably be right for money, but slotting with 32 for money risks too much in the race for too little gain.
Hitting, 6/1*, the third best play, was wrong by 0.02 in the rollout. I see no need to give Black 11 numbers that hit on the 24pt, sending White back 24 pips in the race.
Splitting, 24/21 13/11, is best. This play keeps alive White's racing and priming options, while minimizing the chance that he will be primed.
Seems like a similar third-roll position was discussed on this forum a few months ago. Can anyone remember what it was?
        
    
        
 |  is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 156 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 158
score: 0
 is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----E-D---fD---c-eA---A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/11 | eq: -0.105 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.18% (G:11.11% B:0.47%)
52.82% (G:11.89% B:0.51%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.112...-0.098)
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/5 | eq: -0.119 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.03% (G:13.29% B:0.54%)
52.97% (G:14.38% B:0.83%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.127...-0.111)
Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/1* | eq: -0.124 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.68% (G:11.99% B:0.37%)
53.32% (G:12.10% B:0.58%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.135...-0.113)
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 20/18 13/10 | eq: -0.130 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.59% (G:11.37% B:0.44%)
53.41% (G:13.13% B:0.60%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.139...-0.121)
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 20/15 | eq: -0.138 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.66% (G:10.22% B:0.35%)
53.34% (G:12.50% B:0.50%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.146...-0.130)
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout3 | 13/8 | eq: -0.144 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.61% (G:10.70% B:0.40%)
53.39% (G:12.07% B:0.48%) | Conf: ± 0.023 (-0.167...-0.121)
Duration: 14 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout3 | 13/10 6/4 | eq: -0.154 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.33% (G:12.22% B:0.46%)
53.67% (G:14.01% B:0.76%) | Conf: ± 0.022 (-0.176...-0.132)
Duration: 16 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout3 | 24/22 13/10 | eq: -0.160 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.22% (G:11.20% B:0.45%)
53.78% (G:12.03% B:0.56%) | Conf: ± 0.029 (-0.189...-0.131)
Duration: 15 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| 9. | Rollout3 | 13/11 13/10 | eq: -0.163 (-0.059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.09% (G:12.35% B:0.48%)
53.91% (G:13.23% B:0.64%) | Conf: ± 0.024 (-0.187...-0.139)
Duration: 15 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 8002 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20