This is a late reply to Neil Robin's posting of an opening 21 at -3 -5. I thought people might want to see what XG has to say about an opening 21 at what I consider all the major scores. This extends out to -5 -5 in my book. I let the rollouts go to either what XG reports as 100% confidence or 46k, whichever came first.
I did not roll it out at -1 -3 Crawford, -1 -5 Crawford, or -2 -2 since these scores are essentially dmp. The post Crawford free drop scores area also omitted for obvious reasons. Aside from that I think I have all the scores represented but feel free to speak up if I forget to post something. I will first sum up all the info into some sort of table (I haven't created it yet, so hopefully I find something appealing to the eye) and then post the actual rollouts after for those who want to see them. There is of course more rollout information available at the 4 major scores. If you're looking for that you can check Nack's summary.
Opening 21
-1 -4 C |
[$=S] 46k |
-1 -5 PC |
[S $6] 27k |
-2 -3 |
[$ S6] 46k |
-2 -4 |
[S $1] 46k |
-2 -5 |
[S $11] 35k |
-3 -2 |
[$ S30] 10k |
-3 -3 |
[$ S21] 13k |
-3 -4 |
[S $1] 46k |
-3 -5 |
[S $3] 46k |
-4 -4 |
[$ S16] 20k |
-4 -5 |
[S $4] 46k |
-5 -4 |
[$ S17] 31k |
-5 -5 |
[$ S7] 46k |
1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.114 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.37% (G:16.46% B:2.15%) 49.63% (G:14.35% B:1.65%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.116...-0.112) Duration: 1 day 01 hour 49 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.114 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.03% (G:16.57% B:1.97%) 49.97% (G:13.82% B:0.92%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.116...-0.112) Duration: 22 hours 53 minutes |
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1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.189 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.72% (G:16.29% B:2.00%) 50.28% (G:13.70% B:0.42%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.191...-0.187) Duration: 9 hours 27 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.195 (-0.006) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.00% (G:16.59% B:2.26%) 50.00% (G:14.30% B:0.52%) | Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.197...-0.193) Duration: 10 hours 45 minutes |
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1 27216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.225 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.40% (G:15.87% B:1.88%) 49.60% (G:14.46% B:2.96%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.229...-0.221) Duration: 22 hours 14 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.231 (-0.006) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.92% (G:15.75% B:1.79%) 50.08% (G:13.63% B:2.16%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.235...-0.227) Duration: 19 hours 36 minutes |
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1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.324 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.10% (G:16.40% B:2.35%) 49.90% (G:13.65% B:1.26%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.328...-0.320) Duration: 1 day 05 hours 22 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.325 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.07% (G:16.18% B:2.40%) 49.93% (G:13.79% B:1.82%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.329...-0.321) Duration: 1 day 08 hours 00 minute |
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1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.114 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.86% (G:15.75% B:1.91%) 50.14% (G:13.48% B:0.54%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.118...-0.110) Duration: 23 hours 01 minute |
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2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.125 (-0.011) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.13% (G:15.85% B:2.03%) 49.87% (G:14.08% B:0.70%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.129...-0.121) Duration: 1 day 00 hour 43 minutes |
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1 34989 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.284 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.80% (G:14.64% B:2.20%) 49.20% (G:17.02% B:2.89%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.275...+0.293) Duration: 6 hours 26 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: +0.254 (-0.030) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.28% (G:14.24% B:2.29%) 49.72% (G:15.45% B:1.80%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.246...+0.262) Duration: 5 hours 40 minutes |
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1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.025 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.52% (G:14.65% B:1.27%) 49.48% (G:15.10% B:1.87%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.016...+0.034) Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: +0.004 (-0.021) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.04% (G:14.37% B:1.30%) 49.96% (G:13.92% B:1.20%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.004...+0.012) Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes |
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1 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.113 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.93% (G:14.70% B:1.24%) 50.07% (G:13.44% B:1.60%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.117...-0.109) Duration: 15 hours 17 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.114 (-0.001) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.16% (G:14.87% B:1.25%) 49.84% (G:14.02% B:2.24%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.119...-0.109) Duration: 17 hours 09 minutes |
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1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.076 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.86% (G:14.58% B:1.78%) 50.14% (G:13.42% B:0.63%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.080...-0.072) Duration: 12 hours 20 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.079 (-0.004) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.20% (G:14.73% B:1.78%) 49.80% (G:14.18% B:0.84%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.083...-0.075) Duration: 13 hours 45 minutes |
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1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.026 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.42% (G:14.27% B:1.50%) 49.58% (G:14.60% B:2.10%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.018...+0.034) Duration: 9 hours 21 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: +0.010 (-0.016) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.11% (G:14.20% B:1.46%) 49.89% (G:13.83% B:1.56%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.003...+0.017) Duration: 7 hours 56 minutes |
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1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.060 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.34% (G:14.38% B:1.17%) 49.66% (G:14.37% B:0.96%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.055...+0.065) Duration: 9 hours 49 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: +0.056 (-0.004) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.02% (G:14.21% B:1.20%) 49.98% (G:13.61% B:0.70%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.052...+0.060) Duration: 8 hours 40 minutes |
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1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: -0.026 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.47% (G:14.24% B:0.71%) 49.53% (G:14.69% B:1.84%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.032...-0.020) Duration: 14 hours 49 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: -0.043 (-0.017) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.14% (G:13.92% B:0.68%) 49.86% (G:13.76% B:1.18%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.048...-0.038) Duration: 13 hours 10 minutes |
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1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/5 | eq: +0.015 |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.47% (G:14.22% B:0.68%) 49.53% (G:14.40% B:0.96%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.011...+0.019) Duration: 12 hours 25 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/11 | eq: +0.008 (-0.007) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.07% (G:14.07% B:0.68%) 49.93% (G:13.50% B:0.70%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.004...+0.012) Duration: 10 hours 55 minutes |
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1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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