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XG move I don't fully understand

Posted By: RealNick
Date: Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 9:26 p.m.

I don't quite get why B/23 15/12 is inferior to B/23 8/5. I thought buttoning up in the outfield made sense.

I'm guessing the extra gammons it generates make it worth the risk.





White is burta777

score: 2
pip: 148
3 point match
Crawford
pip: 118
score: 1

Blue is RealNick
XGID=aaaBBBCbC---A-aA---b-bb-cA:0:0:1:32:1:2:1:3:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout1Bar/23 8/5eq: +1.631
Player:
Opponent:		 80.96% (G:50.57% B:14.49%)
19.04% (G:4.13% B:0.18%)		Conf: ± 0.080 (+1.551...+1.711)
Duration: 25.2 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 15/12eq: +1.590 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		 87.12% (G:42.39% B:16.18%)
12.88% (G:1.51% B:0.01%)		Conf: ± 0.097 (+1.493...+1.687)
Duration: 23.5 seconds
3.4 plyBar/23 12/9eq: +1.572 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		 81.34% (G:47.28% B:6.38%)
18.66% (G:3.64% B:0.12%)
4.4 plyBar/20eq: +1.572 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:		 80.97% (G:47.65% B:6.29%)
19.03% (G:3.99% B:0.12%)
5.3 plyBar/23 6/3eq: +1.547 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:		 80.15% (G:47.22% B:5.58%)
19.85% (G:4.58% B:0.11%)
1 40 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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