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Can anyone explain this?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 25 November 2010, at 4:02 p.m.

It's 3a-3a, White on roll, cube action? An XG RO sez marginal recube/easy take. Makes sense since the underdog's takepoint ATS is 24.88% according to the K/R MET.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 42
3 point match
pip: 42
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB------------bbbbbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65.66% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.34% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.64% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.36% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.313
Redouble:+0.623
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.617 (-0.006)
Redouble/Take:+0.623
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.377)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.616...+0.618)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.000 (+0.622...+0.623)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 22.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Now change the score to White leading 4a-5a, cube action? Here the R/K MET says Black needs 25.66% to take. Since it rolled out to be a double when Black needed 24.88% at 3a-3a, it seems logical that White must also have a recube at 4a-5a since the opponent's takepoint is a little higher ATS. The RO however, says this same position is a big no double ATS. Can anyone exlain why this is so?

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 42
5 point match
pip: 42
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB------------bbbbbb-:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65.67% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.33% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.64% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.36% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.313
Redouble:+0.853
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.589
Redouble/Take:+0.447 (-0.142)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.411)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.003 (+0.586...+0.592)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.446...+0.448)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 23.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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