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Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 15 July 2007, at 9:32 p.m.

In Response To: 3rd roll: 54S 42P 32: ? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Robertie doesn't list his ranking of plays, but somewhat insinuates that they are as listed in the post, from worst to best (his choice is 20/18 13/10). Robertie says that 13/11 13/10 "would be most players' first choice." If that's true, then they likely chose at best the seventh(!) best play (I didn't roll out 13/10 8/6, but it is also probably better than 13/11 13/10).

I've known this one for awhile: the right move is 20/15. I still found the rollout results surprsing, though. So questions about the rollout: 1) why is 24/22 13/10 so close behind? Why is it so much better than 20/18 13/10? 2) why on earth is 13/11 13/10 so bad? I understand why it would be behind plays like 13/8 and 20/15, but it's also behind 13/11 8/5, which leaves a direct, slots while split, and duplicates nothing.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 5: Blue to play 32

White	161
Blue	158
Position ID: mGfwATDg8+ABIQ Match ID: cIkJAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	20/15	-0.2420
			0.4503 0.1062 0.0048 - 0.5497 0.1756 0.0065 -0.1705 -0.2420 0.0008 0.0008 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0010 0.0003 0.0019 0.0052
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068931367 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/22 13/10	-0.2595 ( -0.0175)
			0.4416 0.1153 0.0060 - 0.5584 0.1774 0.0083 -0.1812 -0.2595 0.0008 0.0008 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0009 0.0003 0.0021 0.0055
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068931367 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/8	-0.2942 ( -0.0521)
			0.4390 0.1188 0.0066 - 0.5610 0.1825 0.0065 -0.1856 -0.2942 0.0016 0.0016 0.0006 - 0.0016 0.0020 0.0010 0.0042 0.0111
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068931367 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	20/18 13/10	-0.2948 ( -0.0528)
			0.4391 0.1193 0.0071 - 0.5609 0.1961 0.0091 -0.2006 -0.2948 0.0018 0.0016 0.0006 - 0.0018 0.0022 0.0007 0.0049 0.0132
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068931367 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	13/11 8/5	-0.3052 ( -0.0631)
			0.4345 0.1235 0.0073 - 0.5655 0.2059 0.0157 -0.2217 -0.3052 0.0017 0.0017 0.0004 - 0.0017 0.0020 0.0006 0.0046 0.0123
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068931367 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	13/10 6/4	-0.3060 ( -0.0640)
			0.4380 0.1156 0.0061 - 0.5620 0.2006 0.0134 -0.2164 -0.3060 0.0017 0.0016 0.0005 - 0.0017 0.0019 0.0007 0.0045 0.0125
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068931367 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	13/11 13/10	-0.3300 ( -0.0879)
			0.4270 0.1195 0.0063 - 0.5730 0.1893 0.0127 -0.2222 -0.3300 0.0017 0.0016 0.0004 - 0.0017 0.0019 0.0010 0.0044 0.0126
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068931367 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 3rd roll: 54S 42P 32: ?
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 14 July 2007, at 4:57 p.m.
  • 3rd roll: 54S 42P 32: ?
    Stick -- Saturday, 14 July 2007, at 5:08 p.m.
  • 3rd roll: 54S 42P 32: ?
    Mislav Radica -- Saturday, 14 July 2007, at 8:34 p.m.
  • 3rd roll: 54S 42P 32: ?
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 14 July 2007, at 10:50 p.m.
  • 3rd roll: 54S 42P 32: ?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 15 July 2007, at 1:30 p.m.
  • 3rd roll: 54S 42P 32: ?
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 July 2007, at 3:03 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 15 July 2007, at 9:32 p.m.