This is the original position that arose in the chouette. Blue doubled here and everyone on White's side except me scooped. I gave serious consideration to passing noting the unmade 5 pt, huge racing deficit, and awkwardness of White's checkers. I ended up taking but wouldn't have been surprised if it turned out to be a pass. I wanted to see the effect the distribution of checkers/made or semi-made 5 pt. had on the situation as I'm trying to realize the subtleties of the game in OTB play. (it's easy to pick them out when they get posted on forums as 'problems') White is behind so far in the race I believe the effect of gained or lost pips to not have hardly any affect on the D/ND/T/P decision.
Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action? 136 | |
92 |
Cube decision |
Rollout cubeless equity | +0.5184 | |
Cubeful equities: |
1. | Double, take | +0.9045 | |
2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0955 |
3. | No double | +0.8511 | -0.0534 |
Proper cube action: | Redouble, take |
Rollout details |
| Win | W g | W bg | | Lose | L g | L bg | Cubeless | Cubeful | Player gnubg owns 2-cube | 0.7469 | 0.0512 | 0.0004 | - | 0.2531 | 0.0263 | 0.0008 | +0.5184 | +0.8511 | Standard error | 0.0009 | 0.0009 | 0.0036 | - | 0.0009 | 0.0009 | 0.0001 | 0.0022 | 0.0049 | Player user owns 4-cube | 0.7537 | 0.0482 | 0.0005 | - | 0.2463 | 0.0268 | 0.0009 | +1.0567 | +0.9045 | Standard error | 0.0011 | 0.0011 | 0.0036 | - | 0.0011 | 0.0008 | 0.0001 | 0.0050 | 0.0071 | |
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. |
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068586314 and quasi-random dice |
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 |
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. |
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
Here we have gained 3 pips, which again, I believe makes little difference but now have a made five pt. This turns a decent sized double into a ND. Now Blue's immediate blotting numbers could lose the game and he must play much more carefully. Best to hold off on the recube though clearing the 11 pt. loses your market, clearing the 10 does not.
Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action? 133 | |
92 |
Cube decision |
Rollout cubeless equity | +0.4211 | |
Cubeful equities: |
1. | No double | +0.7364 | |
2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.2636 |
3. | Double, take | +0.7206 | -0.0158 |
Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (5.7%) |
Rollout details |
| Win | W g | W bg | | Lose | L g | L bg | Cubeless | Cubeful | Player gnubg owns 2-cube | 0.7119 | 0.0337 | 0.0002 | - | 0.2881 | 0.0354 | 0.0012 | +0.4211 | +0.7364 | Standard error | 0.0010 | 0.0008 | 0.0002 | - | 0.0010 | 0.0009 | 0.0001 | 0.0023 | 0.0043 | Player user owns 4-cube | 0.7207 | 0.0305 | 0.0001 | - | 0.2793 | 0.0354 | 0.0009 | +0.8717 | +0.7206 | Standard error | 0.0011 | 0.0009 | 0.0002 | - | 0.0011 | 0.0008 | 0.0001 | 0.0049 | 0.0066 | |
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. |
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068626055 and quasi-random dice |
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 |
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. |
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
Five point still made but White's distribution fudged a bit. Still hangs on to the ND status.
Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action? 134 | |
92 |
Cube decision |
Rollout cubeless equity | +0.4328 | |
Cubeful equities: |
1. | No double | +0.7459 | |
2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.2541 |
3. | Double, take | +0.7383 | -0.0075 |
Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (2.9%) |
Rollout details |
| Win | W g | W bg | | Lose | L g | L bg | Cubeless | Cubeful | Player gnubg owns 2-cube | 0.7153 | 0.0372 | 0.0004 | - | 0.2847 | 0.0344 | 0.0009 | +0.4328 | +0.7459 | Standard error | 0.0010 | 0.0008 | 0.0002 | - | 0.0010 | 0.0009 | 0.0001 | 0.0022 | 0.0049 | Player user owns 4-cube | 0.7235 | 0.0334 | 0.0002 | - | 0.2765 | 0.0342 | 0.0009 | +0.8911 | +0.7383 | Standard error | 0.0011 | 0.0010 | 0.0002 | - | 0.0011 | 0.0009 | 0.0001 | 0.0049 | 0.0067 | |
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. |
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068946700 and quasi-random dice |
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 |
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. |
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
Same thing, checking if the distribution of checkers or loss of pip(s) mattered much, it doesn't, the made 5 still completes the solid 5 prime and turns hitters into winners.
Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action? 135 | |
92 |
Cube decision |
Rollout cubeless equity | +0.4303 | |
Cubeful equities: |
1. | No double | +0.7456 | |
2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.2544 |
3. | Double, take | +0.7369 | -0.0088 |
Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (3.3%) |
Rollout details |
| Win | W g | W bg | | Lose | L g | L bg | Cubeless | Cubeful | Player gnubg owns 2-cube | 0.7139 | 0.0388 | 0.0003 | - | 0.2861 | 0.0353 | 0.0011 | +0.4303 | +0.7456 | Standard error | 0.0010 | 0.0008 | 0.0000 | - | 0.0010 | 0.0011 | 0.0002 | 0.0023 | 0.0044 | Player user owns 4-cube | 0.7225 | 0.0341 | 0.0002 | - | 0.2775 | 0.0358 | 0.0012 | +0.8847 | +0.7369 | Standard error | 0.0011 | 0.0009 | 0.0000 | - | 0.0011 | 0.0010 | 0.0002 | 0.0050 | 0.0065 | |
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. |
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068953696 and quasi-random dice |
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 |
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. |
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
Help the distribution from the original position a smidge and it changes virtually nothing. It will still take 2+ rolls in most cases to make the 5pt.
Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action? 137 | |
92 |
Cube decision |
Rollout cubeless equity | +0.5071 | |
Cubeful equities: |
1. | Double, take | +0.8843 | |
2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.1157 |
3. | No double | +0.8299 | -0.0544 |
Proper cube action: | Redouble, take |
Rollout details |
| Win | W g | W bg | | Lose | L g | L bg | Cubeless | Cubeful | Player gnubg owns 2-cube | 0.7425 | 0.0517 | 0.0003 | - | 0.2575 | 0.0288 | 0.0011 | +0.5071 | +0.8299 | Standard error | 0.0009 | 0.0009 | 0.0012 | - | 0.0009 | 0.0009 | 0.0002 | 0.0021 | 0.0046 | Player user owns 4-cube | 0.7499 | 0.0472 | 0.0006 | - | 0.2501 | 0.0294 | 0.0011 | +1.0341 | +0.8843 | Standard error | 0.0011 | 0.0011 | 0.0001 | - | 0.0011 | 0.0009 | 0.0001 | 0.0048 | 0.0068 | |
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. |
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068953664 and quasi-random dice |
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 |
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. |
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
The middle man. The slotted five. The results are as one would expect, inbetween the made 5 pt. and the non-started 5 pt. Sometimes White will be able to hit + cover if Blue is forced to leave an immediate shot and in most scenarios White will make the 5 pt. this turn regardless.
Money Game
Blue on roll. Cube Action? 136 | |
92 |
Cube decision |
Rollout cubeless equity | +0.4631 | |
Cubeful equities: |
1. | Double, take | +0.8030 | |
2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.1970 |
3. | No double | +0.7838 | -0.0193 |
Proper cube action: | Redouble, take |
Rollout details |
| Win | W g | W bg | | Lose | L g | L bg | Cubeless | Cubeful | Player gnubg owns 2-cube | 0.7222 | 0.0487 | 0.0004 | - | 0.2778 | 0.0295 | 0.0010 | +0.4631 | +0.7838 | Standard error | 0.0013 | 0.0011 | 0.0001 | - | 0.0013 | 0.0014 | 0.0001 | 0.0030 | 0.0059 | Player user owns 4-cube | 0.7329 | 0.0428 | 0.0000 | - | 0.2671 | 0.0339 | 0.0008 | +0.9478 | +0.8030 | Standard error | 0.0015 | 0.0013 | 0.0019 | - | 0.0015 | 0.0015 | 0.0001 | 0.0067 | 0.0085 | |
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. |
731 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1068985722 and quasi-random dice |
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 |
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. |
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] |