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Uncle Scrooge RO: Massive Snowie and XG 3ply

Posted By: higonefive
Date: Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 6:04 p.m.

This year i got Jake Jakobs "A Funny Thing..." again in my hands, rereading his Cristmas Carol with the remarkable chouette position (p.41). Rollouts neeeded more time then i expected. But here we are: right?! answers differ only by 0.002. Bot agreement. Any one made a gnu RO? And by the way, no one made a guess, to easy?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 199
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 207
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab--cBBB-AAcB-----bbbAABA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63,51% (G: 34,44% B: 6,66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36,49% (G: 5,42% B: 0,24%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63,83% (G: 35,36% B: 7,30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36,17% (G: 5,56% B: 0,28%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,270
Double:+1,290
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,879 (-0,092)
Double/Take:+0,971
Double/Drop:+1,000 (+0,029)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,008 (+0,870...+0,887)
Confidence Double: ± 0,014 (+0,957...+0,985)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 4 days 02 hours 30 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Snowie4 Professional Edition Version 4.7.1 HTML Export

The Box (Green) vs. Uncle Scrooge (White)
Money session. Score Green-White: 0-0




Pip: 199
Game 1
Money session

Green-White:
Score 0-0
Pip: 207
Cube action equity
RolloutMoney equity:0,631
5,6% 33,7% 64,9% 35,1% 5,8% 0,3%
95% confidence interval:
- money cubeless eq.: 0,631 ±0,011,
- live cube no double: 0,890 ±0,019,
- live cube double take: 0,973 ±0,028.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
5184 games (equiv. 59930 games),
played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply,
settlement 0,550 at 4 pts,
random seed, with race database.
Evaluations
1.Double, pass 1,000
2.No double 0,863(-0,137)
3.Double, take 1,005(+0,005)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Live cube
1.Double, take 0,973
2.No double 0,890(-0,083)
3.Double, pass 1,000(+0,027)
Proper cube action: Double, take

This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 18:46:53, 01.01.2011(Export v2.10)

 

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