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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 5 October 2006, at 11:42 a.m.

In Response To: NIB #36 (Stick)

Obviously you're behind in the race (not going into the EPC here) even after roll you're down, on the scoreboard, 5 pips + your opponent is on roll so you don't want to simply clear from the rear. You want to keep builders aimed at the five point so if white is forced to run with one man you'll have the best chance to pounce on that back checker. Since the 7 pt. is blocked the next pt. in line is the 8. So you start 8/6(2). After this, you notice how awful that stack is and play 6/4. [this is how I think OTB at least) Lastly Kit explained it best in saying "black's pick & pass #s are the same #s that make the 5 pt. so by slotting the 2 pt. he gives himself more pick & pass numbers"

Money Game
77
90
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/6(2) 6/2 0.185
0.1% 2.0% 56.1% 43.9% 0.9% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.133 0.010. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 42226 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
2 R 8/6(2) 6/4 3/1 0.162 (-0.023)
0.0% 2.4% 55.2% 44.8% 1.3% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.114 0.010. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 48046 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
3 R 6/4 4/2(2) 3/1 0.144 (-0.041)
0.0% 2.9% 55.2% 44.8% 3.5% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.096 0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 37251 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
4 R 4/2(2) 3/1(2) 0.139 (-0.046)
0.0% 2.0% 55.0% 45.0% 3.4% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.086 0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 31997 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
5 R 6/2 3/1(2) 0.129 (-0.056)
0.0% 2.7% 54.5% 45.5% 3.7% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.080 0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 17973 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
6 R 8/4(2) 0.069 (-0.116)
0.0% 1.3% 52.3% 47.7% 1.5% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.045 0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 30337 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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