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Rollout: Do you have the guts to hit?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 4 January 2011, at 3:23 p.m.

In Response To: Do you have the guts to hit? (Mislav Kovacic)

The rollout puts the hit on top. As I said before, I wouldn't have hit here, but if we give the opponent a significant race lead without increasing his attacking potential too much then I would probably hit.

I've also constructed a possible position that Yellow may have faced on the previous roll, to illustrate that creating a blotty board isn't necessarily a blunder.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112
7 point match
pip: 110
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-ABAABBB-B-aba---bbc-bBb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:7:10
to play 65

1.Rollout122/11* eq: -0.445
Player:
Opponent:
40.33% (G:16.38% B:0.82%)
59.67% (G:30.77% B:3.80%)
Conf: 0.017 (-0.462...-0.428)
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout19/4 9/3eq: -0.505 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:
36.75% (G:3.72% B:0.05%)
63.25% (G:5.02% B:0.16%)
Conf: 0.008 (-0.513...-0.497)
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
1 3000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


Here's a candidate for the position on the previous roll.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
7 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-AB--BBD-B-bbb----bc-bBb--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:7:10
to play 43

1.XG Roller+7/4 7/3eq: -0.381
Player:
Opponent:
39.69% (G:4.75% B:0.06%)
60.31% (G:5.04% B:0.19%)
2.XG Roller+9/5 7/4eq: -0.385 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
39.36% (G:5.65% B:0.11%)
60.64% (G:7.02% B:0.48%)
3.XG Roller+9/6 9/5eq: -0.396 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
38.79% (G:5.09% B:0.09%)
61.21% (G:6.32% B:0.21%)
4.XG Roller+9/6 7/3eq: -0.397 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
39.04% (G:5.24% B:0.10%)
60.96% (G:7.13% B:0.48%)
5.XG Roller+7/3 6/3eq: -0.401 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
38.63% (G:4.76% B:0.07%)
61.37% (G:6.36% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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