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Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:00 p.m.

There really isn't much of a point to this post. In reviewing my opening rolls at various scores I had a 5k rollout of an opening 52 that reported 100% confidence. The difference in the plays felt too large at the score and since there was plenty of variance left I decided to extend it to 10k and proceed from there. From 10k I went to 15k and from 15k to 20k. I'm stopping at 20k (for now) but here are the results after each 5k interval.

• [S D29] 5k
• [S D25] 10k
• [S D23] 15k
• [S D23] 20k

As you can see in the temporary 'final' rollout below there's still enough variance to swing the difference in plays quite a bit. From 5k >> 10k the result of those 5k trials had to be [S D21] and then from 10k >> 15k those 5k trails were [S D19]. As Nack has been one to keep on about the variance and its effects for about as long as I can remember and he converted me not too far along to ditch my 1k rollouts and shoot for an absolute minimum of 5k for early game rollouts I'm pushing this post out there to say be careful what conclusions you draw from rollout results that still leave a lot of room for smudging even after 5k. (or as we saw here after 25k)

These results are by no means shocking like the 25k >> 46k of the opening 32 at -4 -4 were, but it's not often I keep track of the 5k intervals to actually witness the change and take mental note of it. I might start doing it more often to get a better feel for the swings of 5k trials or more.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 4 point match pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:4:10
to play 52

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/8	eq: +0.013
	Player: Opponent: 50.26% (G:13.80% B:1.50%) 49.74% (G:13.54% B:1.26%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.006...+0.020) Duration: 4 hours 36 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 13/8	eq: -0.010 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 49.83% (G:15.03% B:1.83%) 50.17% (G:14.54% B:1.58%) Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.018...-0.002) Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: Random Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Messages In This Thread

• Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
  Stick -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:00 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 9:37 p.m.
  • Stat sig
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 16 January 2011, at 2:35 p.m.
  • Opening 52 at 4 away 4 away - extended
    Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:55 a.m.
    • Nine 5k results (report)
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 3:20 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
        eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Stick -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:15 p.m.
          • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 10:59 p.m.
            • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
              Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 9:34 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 4:47 a.m.
                • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
              • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
                Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 19 January 2011, at 9:10 p.m.
        • You mean CI *NM*
          neilkaz -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:41 p.m.
          • You mean CI - I did indeed *NM*
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 6:56 p.m.
        • Nine 5k results (report) - that why people need to check SI
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 18 January 2011, at 5:30 p.m.
      • Nine 5k results (report)
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 17 January 2011, at 9:43 p.m.