Stick might frown on this philosophy, but instead of posting a dozen follow-ups to OLM threads, here are the rollouts from the last week and a half.
OLM Sa 01/08/11
         
 
        
 | | White is XG Roller+
score: 0
pip: 120 | | 15 point match | pip: 119
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=----bCE-D---bB--Ac-b-bb-b-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/10 | eq: -0.026 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.84% (G:4.13% B:0.15%)
50.16% (G:9.61% B:0.13%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.030...-0.022)
Duration: 55 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/14 6/2 | eq: -0.065 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.58% (G:4.44% B:0.20%)
50.42% (G:9.87% B:0.12%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.069...-0.061)
Duration: 49 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OLM Su 01/09/11
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 0
pip: 114 | | 15 point match | pip: 128
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=----aCE-D-a-bB---c-b-bb-bA:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/5 | eq: -0.563 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.42% (G:7.53% B:0.31%)
64.58% (G:16.36% B:0.28%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.569...-0.557)
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 5/4* | eq: -0.581 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.85% (G:11.10% B:0.57%)
62.15% (G:29.66% B:0.54%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.590...-0.572)
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OLM Mo 01/10/11
 
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 0
pip: 109 | | 15 point match | pip: 125
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=-----DD-Daa-bB---c-b-bbAb-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/3 5/4 | eq: -0.783 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.32% (G:5.17% B:0.18%)
69.68% (G:13.59% B:0.32%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.790...-0.776)
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/3 | eq: -0.839 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.39% (G:4.91% B:0.19%)
70.61% (G:13.90% B:0.38%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.846...-0.832)
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OLM Tu 01/11/11
  
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 0
pip: 109 | | 15 point match | pip: 119
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=---AACD-Caa-bB---c-b-bbAb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:15:10 |
| White on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout |
| No Double |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.64% (G: 13.24% B: 0.30%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.36% (G: 5.32% B: 0.19%) |
| Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.63% (G: 13.64% B: 0.31%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.37% (G: 5.19% B: 0.19%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.475 |
| Double: | +0.975 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.733 (-0.050) |
| Double/Take: | +0.783 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.217) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| |
| Rollout details |
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply |
| |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.006 (+0.727...+0.739) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.007 (+0.776...+0.790) |
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| |
| Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OLM We 01/12/11
 
 
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 0
pip: 101 | | 15 point match | pip: 119
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=---AACD-C---cB-a-c-b-bbAb-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 5/4 | eq: -0.464 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.92% (G:2.98% B:0.08%)
74.08% (G:8.53% B:0.08%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.467...-0.461)
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/5 | eq: -0.465 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.82% (G:2.88% B:0.08%)
74.18% (G:8.33% B:0.09%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.468...-0.462)
Duration: 51 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/3 | eq: -0.472 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.55% (G:2.86% B:0.07%)
74.45% (G:8.44% B:0.09%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.475...-0.469)
Duration: 25 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/7 8/4 | eq: -0.476 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.88% (G:3.16% B:0.09%)
74.12% (G:9.51% B:0.23%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.479...-0.473)
Duration: 42 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 8/4 3/2 | eq: -0.478 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.45% (G:2.79% B:0.07%)
74.55% (G:8.74% B:0.08%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.481...-0.475)
Duration: 37 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 6/2 5/4 | eq: -0.481 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.00% (G:3.16% B:0.08%)
74.00% (G:10.37% B:0.11%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.484...-0.478)
Duration: 29 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OLM Th 01/13/11
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 0
pip: 16 | | 15 point match | pip: 87
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=--ABCBD---AAA--------abc--:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/7 10/6 | eq: -1.153 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:14.82% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.000 (-1.153...-1.153)
Duration: 10.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 12/6 10/8 | eq: -1.154 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:14.89% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.000 (-1.154...-1.154)
Duration: 9.7 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 12/6 11/9 | eq: -1.164 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:15.87% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.000 (-1.164...-1.164)
Duration: 7.8 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 11/9 10/6 3/1 | eq: -1.164 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:15.87% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.000 (-1.164...-1.164)
Duration: 9.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OLM Fr 01/14/11
Opening 32 -- I didn't do a rollout, but it generated quite a bit of discussion.
OLM Sa 01/15/11
 
 
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 2
pip: 139 | | 15 point match | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=-a-BA-DbB-B--Ba--cbd-Bb---:0:0:1:65:0:2:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/4 6/1* | eq: +0.159 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.75% (G:18.44% B:0.61%)
48.25% (G:11.61% B:0.55%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.151...+0.167)
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/5 10/4 | eq: +0.104 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.13% (G:14.68% B:0.45%)
48.87% (G:10.12% B:0.42%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.097...+0.111)
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OLM Su 01/16/11
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 2
pip: 140 | | 15 point match | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=aA-BB-CbB-A--Ba--cbd-Bb---:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:15:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout |
| No Double |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.82% (G: 28.57% B: 0.72%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.18% (G: 9.34% B: 0.48%) |
| Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.49% (G: 30.56% B: 0.61%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.51% (G: 9.30% B: 0.52%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.431 |
| Double: | +0.963 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.614 (-0.100) |
| Double/Take: | +0.714 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.286) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| |
| Rollout details |
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply |
| |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.007 (+0.607...+0.621) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.011 (+0.704...+0.725) |
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| |
| Duration: 2 hours 47 minutes |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OLM Mo 01/17/11
 
| | White is XG Roller+
score: 2
pip: 135 | | 15 point match | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=-a-BC-CbB----B---ccd-Bb--A:1:-1:1:42:0:2:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 4/2 | eq: -0.280 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.19% (G:10.95% B:0.34%)
54.81% (G:11.46% B:0.42%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.285...-0.275)
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 6/4 | eq: -0.321 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.88% (G:9.26% B:0.28%)
56.12% (G:10.69% B:0.40%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.326...-0.316)
Duration: 2 hours 08 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/6 | eq: -0.340 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.08% (G:10.24% B:0.32%)
56.92% (G:11.33% B:0.45%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.345...-0.335)
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross