In the actual game (-2-4, I owed the cube), I played S (B/18). Black has only 8 checkers in the zone, so I thought it was a reasonable play to try to make an advanced anchor. However, keeping the anchor on the 24pt while playing 13/7 reduces White's chance of losing a gammon.
Three results are posted below. (1) Rollout for money, (2) Rollout at Gammon Save and (3) XG+ eval at Gammon Save is posted to show how far off the eval was compared to the rollout result.
1. | Rollout1 | Bar/18 | eq: -0.335 |
| Player: Opponent: | 35.15% (G:7.76% B:0.36%) 64.85% (G:24.37% B:1.37%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.341...-0.329) Duration: 5 hours 38 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 13/7 | eq: -0.352 (-0.017) |
| Player: Opponent: | 34.27% (G:7.82% B:0.36%) 65.73% (G:23.28% B:2.16%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.358...-0.346) Duration: 5 hours 40 minutes |
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3. | Rollout2 | Bar/24 21/15 | eq: -0.393 (-0.057) |
| Player: Opponent: | 32.76% (G:6.92% B:0.31%) 67.24% (G:23.11% B:1.83%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.402...-0.384) Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes |
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1 8388 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 13/7 | eq: -0.761 |
| Player: Opponent: | 34.07% (G:9.48% B:1.17%) 65.93% (G:22.14% B:5.97%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.769...-0.753) Duration: 3 hours 01 minute |
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2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 21/15 | eq: -0.781 (-0.020) |
| Player: Opponent: | 31.82% (G:7.47% B:0.77%) 68.18% (G:20.87% B:4.33%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.788...-0.774) Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes |
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3. | Rollout1 | Bar/18 | eq: -0.782 (-0.020) |
| Player: Opponent: | 34.65% (G:9.31% B:1.33%) 65.35% (G:23.74% B:3.35%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.789...-0.775) Duration: 2 hours 52 minutes |
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1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/18 | eq: -0.734 |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.53% (G:8.10% B:0.42%) 63.47% (G:23.22% B:1.40%) | |
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2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 13/7 | eq: -0.746 (-0.012) |
| Player: Opponent: | 34.79% (G:7.84% B:0.35%) 65.21% (G:22.10% B:1.97%) | |
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3. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 21/15 | eq: -0.771 (-0.037) |
| Player: Opponent: | 32.75% (G:6.84% B:0.29%) 67.25% (G:21.30% B:1.56%) | |
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross