In general slotting gives up way too much equity to be a real contender. All the rollouts I currently have are posted below. Here are the nacbracs too. The staggered GNU rollout of 2 ply v. 0 ply is not included in the nacbracs.
Key: D = Down (13/7 13/11), R = Run (24/16), S = Split (24/18 13/11), U = Up (24/18 24/22), Z = Reverse Split (24/22 13/7), $ = Slot (13/5). Margins are in thousandths. After brackets is a bot symbol (~ Snowie, / GnuBG, < XG 3-ply, ^ XG 4-ply, "+ XG2 roller+) and the number of trials in thousands, rounded down (an asterisk repeats, not necessary after final number).
For example, " [S R25 $49] /15**5" means that S is best and R is -.025 in a GnuBG rollout of 15000+ trials, and $ is -.049 after 5000+ trials.
# | Ply | Move | Equity |
• | 1 | R | 24/18 13/11 | +0.0176 |
| 0.5063 | 0.1314 | 0.0064 | - | 0.4937 | 0.1364 | 0.0056 | +0.0084 | +0.0176 | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0001 | - | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0001 | 0.0008 | 0.0020 | | |
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| 46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1 and quasi-random dice | |
| Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| 2 | R | 24/16 | -0.0065 ( -0.0241) |
| 0.5028 | 0.1191 | 0.0054 | - | 0.4972 | 0.1356 | 0.0053 | -0.0108 | -0.0065 | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0001 | - | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0001 | 0.0007 | 0.0019 | | |
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| 46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1 and quasi-random dice | |
| Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| 3 | R | 13/5 | -0.0157 ( -0.0333) |
| 0.4931 | 0.1457 | 0.0068 | - | 0.5069 | 0.1408 | 0.0074 | -0.0094 | -0.0157 | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0001 | - | 0.0003 | 0.0003 | 0.0001 | 0.0009 | 0.0022 | | |
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| 46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1 and quasi-random dice | |
| Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
# | Ply | Move | Equity |
• | 1 | R | 24/18 13/11 | +0.0193 |
| 0.5068 | 0.1302 | 0.0064 | - | 0.4932 | 0.1360 | 0.0055 | +0.0087 | +0.0193 | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 0.0002 | - | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 0.0002 | 0.0014 | 0.0035 | | |
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| 15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 988951872 and quasi-random dice | |
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| 2 | R | 24/16 | -0.0060 ( -0.0253) |
| 0.5028 | 0.1191 | 0.0053 | - | 0.4972 | 0.1368 | 0.0056 | -0.0124 | -0.0060 | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 0.0001 | - | 0.0005 | 0.0006 | 0.0002 | 0.0013 | 0.0035 | | |
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| 15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 988951872 and quasi-random dice | |
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| 3 | R | 13/5 | -0.0296 ( -0.0489) |
| 0.4914 | 0.1440 | 0.0068 | - | 0.5086 | 0.1407 | 0.0076 | -0.0148 | -0.0296 | 0.0009 | 0.0009 | 0.0002 | - | 0.0009 | 0.0010 | 0.0005 | 0.0023 | 0.0062 | | |
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 988951872 and quasi-random dice | |
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
# | Ply | Move | Equity |
• | 1 | R | 24/18 13/11 | +0.1319 |
| 0.5257 | 0.1282 | 0.0061 | - | 0.4743 | 0.1296 | 0.0058 | +0.0502 | +0.1319 | 0.0009 | 0.0009 | 0.0004 | - | 0.0009 | 0.0008 | 0.0003 | 0.0023 | 0.0062 | | |
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821780159 and quasi-random dice | |
| Player 0: | |
| Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert] | |
| Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert] | |
| Player 1: | |
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| 2 | R | 13/5 | +0.1095 ( -0.0224) |
| 0.5117 | 0.1421 | 0.0062 | - | 0.4883 | 0.1332 | 0.0067 | +0.0319 | +0.1095 | 0.0009 | 0.0008 | 0.0002 | - | 0.0009 | 0.0009 | 0.0003 | 0.0023 | 0.0063 | | |
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| 5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 821780159 and quasi-random dice | |
| Player 0: | |
| Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert] | |
| Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert] | |
| Player 1: | |
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
# | Ply | Move | Equity |
1 | R | 24/18 13/11 | 0.018 |
| | Live cube rollout: 0.026 |
| | 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.012 ±0.004, - live cube: 0.026 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 15552 games (equiv. 490389 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 4 pts, random seed, with race database.
|
2 | R | 24/16 | -0.003 (-0.020) |
| | Live cube rollout: 0.004 |
| | 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.005 ±0.004, - live cube: 0.004 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 15552 games (equiv. 497554 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 4 pts, random seed, with race database.
|
3 | R | 13/5 | -0.021 (-0.038) |
| | Live cube rollout: -0.027 |
| | 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.013 ±0.005, - live cube: -0.027 ±0.009. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 10368 games (equiv. 312997 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 4 pts, random seed, with race database.
|
4 | R | 13/7 13/11 | -0.066 (-0.083) |
| | Live cube rollout: -0.075 |
| | 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.047 ±0.007, - live cube: -0.075 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 148352 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 4 pts, random seed, with race database.
|
5 | R | 24/18 24/22 | -0.066 (-0.083) |
| | Live cube rollout: -0.068 |
| | 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.049 ±0.006, - live cube: -0.068 ±0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 163057 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 4 pts, random seed, with race database.
|
6 | R | 24/22 13/7 | -0.071 (-0.089) |
| | Live cube rollout: -0.076 |
| | 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.049 ±0.007, - live cube: -0.076 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 157789 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 4 pts, random seed, with race database.
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