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Weekly Monday Night Game

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 31 July 2007, at 6:51 p.m.

In Response To: Weekly Monday Night Game (Stick)

Well, the safe play does have a virtue: it's 100% safe. Other than that it doesn't have much going for it, but being 100% safe is a pretty big virtue. It doesn't really look right, but maybe I'll come back to it.

So hitting leaves 11 shots (0 hit and covers), while running leaves 17 shots (2 hit and covers). At least the hit and covers aren't as bad as they would be in a match since you have Jacoby in your favor, but you'd still like to get a roll in. Monstrous market loss for White if Blue gets hit and dances, but he's still an underdog after the play, I think, so he definitely can't double.

So after hit/dance, does Blue have a double? Yes, probably. Can White take? I definitely would. With two high points open Blue still has a lot of work to do. What about after 18/7 and getting missed? Depends on how bad the miss is, I guess. Let's give White a 52, played 13/6. Looks like a close D/T probably.

Consensus: I have no idea, but I have to leave so I'll pick something. Looking at 7/1 7/2 again, I hate it. 18/7, I guess.

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