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From the OLM - You got Goth Served

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 3 August 2007, at 6:15 p.m.

This is the original position from the OLM with me having a 22 to play. I have not doubled yet even though before this roll I'm sure it was very close one way or another. With two of the 2s I'm making the 5 pt so the question now is do I bring two more in and stack the 6 or do I clear the 10 pt.? This is a rare occasion where I should search out the weaker looking play. It may not have had an effect on your decision, only you will be able to tell me that but it's something that should be considered.

After either play I thought you had a pass. That means I'm going to pick what I think you'll think is the weakest of the plays. The play in my mind that 'looks like more of a take' is leaving more points to clear in front of you and stacking the 6, so that's what I did. Even though stacking the 8 is also somewhat awkward without that extra point to clear I feared you might more readily pass. The rollouts for both resulting positions are below and verify that the 22 play was close and that you indeed have a pass either way.

Match to 17, White leads 1 to 0

102
139
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

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The score (after 1 game) is: Stick 1, Readers 0 (match to 17 points)

Move number 23: Stick on roll, cube decision?

Stick	94
Readers	132
Position ID: 2nYCASPGvs0AAA Match ID: MAEgAhAAAAAA

• Stick doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5793	(Money: +0.5771)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0710	+0.0710
3.	No double	+0.9014	-0.0986
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7387 0.1354 0.0021 - 0.2613 0.0373 0.0005 +0.5793 +0.9014 Standard error 0.0013 0.0015 0.0002 - 0.0013 0.0008 0.0007 0.0030 0.0078 Player Readers owns 2-cube 0.7569 0.1342 0.0020 - 0.2431 0.0341 0.0006 +1.2504 +1.0710 Standard error 0.0018 0.0022 0.0001 - 0.0018 0.0011 0.0006 0.0081 0.0116
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
658 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1067012424 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 1, user 0 (match to 17 points)

Move number 3: gnubg to play 14

gnubg	94
user	132
Position ID: 2nYCASPGbj8AAA Match ID: MIEwAhAAAAAA

• gnubg doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5738	(Money: +0.5721)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0689	+0.0689
3.	No double	+0.9143	-0.0857
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7462 0.1111 0.0011 - 0.2538 0.0321 0.0005 +0.5738 +0.9143 Standard error 0.0015 0.0014 0.0001 - 0.0015 0.0010 0.0001 0.0032 0.0076 Player user owns 2-cube 0.7618 0.1093 0.0005 - 0.2382 0.0296 0.0006 +1.2258 +1.0689 Standard error 0.0020 0.0023 0.0002 - 0.0020 0.0013 0.0001 0.0088 0.0109
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
572 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1067016337 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• From the OLM - You got Goth Served
  Stick -- Friday, 3 August 2007, at 6:15 p.m.
  • And then...
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 4 August 2007, at 5:48 p.m.