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BGonline.org Forums
Backgammon Theory Help Request for Poker
Posted By: Stanley E. Richards
Date: Thursday, 12 May 2011, at 4:18 a.m.
I have developed an affinity for Heads Up Sit N Go Tournaments. Each player begins with 1,500 chips and the winner wins the entire pot when his opponent has no chips. This creates tournament chip equity which is similar to backgammon match equity cubing. I am familiar with backgammon match equities and can properly cube according to score. Unfortunately, I am just guessing with All In decisions based on chip stacks. Take the below example.
No Limit Holdem – Heads Up – Sit N Go Tournament
HERO (BB): 1,160.00 VILLAIN (SB): 1,840.00
VILLAIN posts SB 10.00, HERO posts BB 20.00
Pre Flop: (30.00) HERO has Td Kh
VILLAIN raises to 60.00, HERO raises to 180.00, VILLAIN calls 120.00
Flop: (360.00, 2 players) 9c 5d 3c HERO checks, VILLAIN bets 1,660.00 and is all-in, HERO calls 980.00 and is all-in
Turn: (2320.00, 2 players) 8c
River: (2320.00, 2 players) Th
HERO shows Td Kh (One Pair, Tens) (PreFlop 48%, Flop 26%, Turn 14%) VILLAIN shows 4s 4d (One Pair, Fours) (PreFlop 52%, Flop 74%, Turn 86%) VILLAIN wins 0.00 HERO wins 2,320.00
At the Flop, I must decide whether to accept the All In bet from the Villain. At even chip or at most chip lead scenarios, I would definitely fold here. However, my 980 chip total is already a bit less than 30% of the 3,000 chip total for this tournament. I suspected that my winning chances were only about 25%. Yet, I guessed the following tournament equities.
980 chip – 20% tournament equity
2,320 chip – 85 % tournament equity
0 chip – 0% tournament equity
Fold gives me 20% equity.
Call gives me 21.25 % equity (85% x .25 + 0% x .75).
This sounds reasonable. But, it is based on wild tournament equity guesses which could be quite incorrect. We know the backgammon equities based on score. I wish to know the Heads Up Tournament Equity based on chip count percentage. I present this challenge to BG Online because I consider backgammon players to be much more equity aware than poker players. Backgammon players may be more mathematical and scientific than the average poker player.
Please excuse me for requesting well known information if it is already available. I have read many poker books, but have not read all of the most recommended literature. I do not see any way of conducting rollouts per chip count with my Poker Academy Pro.
Stanley
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