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Moving from 20pt to 18pt - when and why?

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Thursday, 19 May 2011, at 3:30 p.m.

Today I've had this position:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 95
Unlimited Game
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBCC-----bB---c-dBcc-A-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62
1.XG Roller+24/18 20/18eq: -0,415
Player:
Opponent:
28,97% (G:3,10% B:0,08%)
71,03% (G:12,20% B:0,11%)
2.XG Roller+24/16eq: -0,463 (-0,048)
Player:
Opponent:
25,19% (G:2,17% B:0,05%)
74,81% (G:7,16% B:0,09%)
3.XG Roller+13/11 13/7eq: -0,469 (-0,055)
Player:
Opponent:
25,86% (G:3,35% B:0,12%)
74,14% (G:10,27% B:0,16%)
4.XG Roller+24/18 6/4eq: -0,495 (-0,080)
Player:
Opponent:
24,70% (G:2,36% B:0,06%)
75,30% (G:9,54% B:0,11%)
5.XG Roller+24/18 5/3eq: -0,495 (-0,080)
Player:
Opponent:
24,66% (G:2,42% B:0,06%)
75,34% (G:9,64% B:0,10%)

I played 13/7 13/11.

Now I'm trying to find the reasons why abandoning 20pt and making 18pt is better than my move, and I have problem with that so I need your help.

I modified this position and made several variants, but didn't conclude nothing useful from them.

Is there some "rule of thumb" for these kind of decisions?

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