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How can this win % be a drop ATS?

Posted By: RolldUpTrips
Date: Friday, 20 May 2011, at 11:42 p.m.

I was white in this position and my opponent didn't double, which is all well and good. What confused me is that i looked at the analyze and thought based on white's winning % it should be TG/T. How can white drop when winning ~17% of the games?
White is RolldUpTrips

score: 5
pip: 130
7 point match
pip: 113
score: 1

Blue is GMK
XGID=--a-B-DBDA--cBa--c-cab-a--:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 82.42% (G:14.48% B:0.20%) 83.21% (G:12.76% B:0.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.58% (G:1.39% B:0.03%) 16.79% (G:1.01% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.862 +1.777
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.025
Double/Take:+1.336 (+0.311)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.025)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 7.5%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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