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cube position

Posted By: steve
Date: Tuesday, 31 May 2011, at 8:36 p.m.

Black is just over 25% wins in this position, After adjusting for gammons, he needs to be 24% to take. Why is this such a huge drop? This position looks like an easy take, but I'm no where close.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 100
9 point match
pip: 104
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBCB-C---bC---a-bcbaab-:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.48% (G:8.13% B:0.51%) 74.59% (G:8.10% B:0.88%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.52% (G:2.40% B:0.03%) 25.41% (G:2.58% B:0.05%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.574 +1.345
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.891 (-0.109)±0.011 (+0.879..+0.902)
Double/Take:+1.145 (+0.145)±0.017 (+1.128..+1.162)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 2-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.163.beta, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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