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Cube?

Posted By: steve
Date: Thursday, 30 June 2011, at 5:46 p.m.

How is it that player on roll can be 37% at 2-away 2-away and have a cube?

is eslacin

score: 1
pip: 98
3 point match
pip: 102
score: 1

is You
XGID=--CBBBB-B---c----c-bbbBba-:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:3:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 36.88% (G:4.08% B:0.12%) 36.83% (G:4.18% B:0.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 63.12% (G:6.02% B:0.22%) 63.17% (G:6.10% B:0.21%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.298 -0.745
Cubeful Equities
     No double:-0.764 (-0.019)±0.011 (-0.775..-0.753)
 Double/Take:-0.745±0.011 (-0.756..-0.734)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.745)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
 
Double Decision confidence:99.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.169.beta, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Here, the cubee needs about 32% to take. I can see where this would be a huge drop using actual pips. After applying Nac's 57 rule and the Keith count, the EPC race is much closer than the actual pip race. I would have taken this in a second applying either of those two EPC counting methods, but it's a blunder (x's 5) to take. My question is, I think, at what point does EPC counting apply. Both positions were rolled out on GNU with the same results as XG, so I know my entire approach is wrong when looking at these positions.

is eslacin

score: 1
pip: 67
3 point match
pip: 61
score: 1

is You
XGID=-CBBBCA-A--Aa----a-bbbcca-:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:3:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 25.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.487 +1.383
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.861 (-0.139)
     Double/Take:+1.383 (+0.383)
 Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.169.beta, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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