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BGonline.org Forums
Comment on Wimbledon Finals
Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 3 July 2011, at 6:31 p.m.
Nadal's first serve % was 78% (64/82). When his first serve went in, he won 67% (43/64). He won only 44% (8/18) of his second serve points.
Instead of hitting his second serve slower than his first, what if Nadal had hit his second serve as hard as his first? Assuming he would have had the same serve % (78%) and assuming he would have won the same % of first serve points (67%), his second serve win % would have been 52% (.78 x .67) instead of 44%.
In other words, Nadal would have won a higher % of points on his second serve if he had served as hard on his second serve as he did on his first.
I have noticed this same thing for decades in a significant percentage of tennis matches, yet when they show these statistics on the TV screen, no commentator has ever mentioned this relationship and suggested that the player would be better off going for more on his second serve.
Just as NFL and NCAA football coaches are clueless about whether to kick or go for it on fourth down, evidently many tennis players are clueless about how hard they should hit their second serve. They are afraid of double faulting when they should be more afraid of losing the point.
I wish I had kept a written record of all the stupid things the television tennis commentators said this year at Wimbledon. The most profound comment was from Boris Becker when he shared his "wisdumb," enlightening us by divulging that the player who wins the first set usually goes on to win the match. Who would have known that if Boris Becker had not told us?
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