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My opponent roundly criticized me after the match

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 12:22 a.m.

In Response To: My opponent roundly criticized me after the match (adambulldog)

If you take and never recube, I think your 4-cube tp is around 27% ATS. Trailer's 8-cube takepoint on anything but a last roll position is around 10%, so you could probably take with 25.5% cubeless chances ATS.

Do you have it? I definitely think so. 1 closed out with 6 checkers off and the other flush down to the ace and deuce points vs. perfect 654 distribution gives you around 31% cubeless chances. Here you've got a gap on the deuce but your oppt has a spare deep on his ace. I think this position is better for your side than the reference position, so I'd say it's an easy take with chances > 31%.

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