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Oops, he criticized me again

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 1:34 a.m.

In Response To: Oops, he criticized me again (adambulldog)

Ward count for you is 12 + 8 for the extras above 2 on the ace point = 20. For Blue it's 23 + 2 for the extra on the ace + 1 for the extra on the deuce + 4 for the 2 extra checkers on the board = 30. Ward also suggests subtracting 1 for each extra point covered in the board but I don't think that really matters here.

The Kleinman count for the leader on roll ahead by 20-30 is 14 x 14/46, about 4.25 which translates to less than 8% chances for the dog.

R/P (vs. an even oppt anyway).

You could also use EPC here. I get around 31.2 vs. 38 but I don't know how to convert that into winning percentages.

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