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65R-21$-55P-42

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 4:01 p.m.

In Response To: 65R-21$-55P-42 (Jason Lee)

Your Nactation is perfect, Jason.

167 21$+42 164

156 21$-65R-42 164

Several years ago, I rolled out 21$-65R-42 (above, right) and was surprised to learn that making the 4pt is better than covering the 5pt (by .036).

In a quest to understand the position better, I removed White's 65R from the equation and rolled out 21$+42 (i.e., Blue plays 21$, White does nothing, and Blue rolls 42, shown on the left). The result? Covering the 5pt is better, and by .065. The swing is just over .100, a memorable difference! [I also rolled 21$+22, but that's another story.]

How can we apply that nugget of information here? Well, I also happen to know the third roll position 21$-55P-42 (below, left) is a close decision (the 5pt beats the 4pt by .016). Given that it's close, the 4pt must surely be better if we add White's 65R to the equation (Jason's fourth roll position, below, right). The swing might or might not be as large as .100, but it is surely substantial enough to cause making the 4pt to be easily best.

147 21$-55P-42 164

136 65R-21$-55P-42 164

Down 28 pips on the right, Blue would dearly love to engage in a priming battle. If he makes the 4pt and White misses, he is a big favorite to cover his 5pt, which means he has gained almost an entire priming point. If he is missed, he has good chances to hit back there and cover the 5pt anyway.

Casper's variant (below right) is interesting. Blue is down only 16 pips (instead of 28). For 21$-53P-42 (below, left), it is easily best to cover the 5pt: the (truncated) rollout shows a margin of .074. However, if the aforementioned .100 swing (from 65R) can be loosely applied, then in the right-hand position below (Casper's variant), making the 4pt should still be better than covering the 5pt, though by a much smaller margin than in the right-hand position just above (Jason's position).

159 21$-53P-42 164

148 65R-21$-53P-42 164

Paul's book on 42 rates to be very worthwhile. However, as he has implied, our best equity is to expect it will never be published. :)

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 65R-21$-55P-42
  Jason Lee -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 2:52 a.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42
    Stick -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 2:58 a.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42
    Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 3:46 a.m.
    • 65R-21$-55P-42
      Higonefive -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 2:05 p.m.
  • Compare 65R-21$-53P-42
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 9:41 a.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 4:01 p.m.
    • 65R-21$-55P-42
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 4:17 p.m.
      • 65R-21$-53P-42 (Casper variant)
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 6:17 p.m.
        • 65R-21$-53P-42 (Casper variant)
          Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 9:12 p.m.
    • 65R-21$-55P-42
      Wilcox -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 4:52 p.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42
    Turz -- Monday, 11 July 2011, at 8:59 a.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42 ROLLOUT
    Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 19 July 2011, at 12:42 a.m.