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65R-21$-53P-42 (Casper variant)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 6:17 p.m.

In Response To: 65R-21$-55P-42 (Casper van der Tak)

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65R-21$-53P-42	164

To test the theory of applying the .100 swing across similar position pairs (i.e., given that 21$-53P-42 favors 5pt by .074, one can predict 65R-21$-53P-42 favors 4pt, by very roughly .026), I just finished a Snowie truncated rollout (1296 trials), which IMO is more reliable than a 2592-trial full rollout (double the length to 5184 and the reliability is about the same). Result: the 4pt won by .017. Noting that all but one of the elements of the comparison were based on truncated rollouts, there is pretty fair consistency.

The truth rates to be somewhere between your margin and mine (if not, then there is a significant trunc bias). That is, there is little point to my extending the stable 1k trunc, but in case you extend the (high-variance) 2k full, the 4pt is more likely to gain than lose vs the 5pt compared to where it (apparently) stands now in your rollout.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 65R-21$-55P-42
  Jason Lee -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 2:52 a.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42
    Stick -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 2:58 a.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42
    Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 3:46 a.m.
    • 65R-21$-55P-42
      Higonefive -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 2:05 p.m.
  • Compare 65R-21$-53P-42
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 9:41 a.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 4:01 p.m.
    • 65R-21$-55P-42
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 4:17 p.m.
      • 65R-21$-53P-42 (Casper variant)
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 6:17 p.m.
        • 65R-21$-53P-42 (Casper variant)
          Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 9:12 p.m.
    • 65R-21$-55P-42
      Wilcox -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 4:52 p.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42
    Turz -- Monday, 11 July 2011, at 8:59 a.m.
  • 65R-21$-55P-42 ROLLOUT
    Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 19 July 2011, at 12:42 a.m.