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Oops, he criticized me again

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 11 July 2011, at 1:17 a.m.

In Response To: Oops, he criticized me again (Mr Majestyk)

That Metric formula looks sorta like Kleinman's racing formula in that you take the pip count, adjust for stacks, gaps, and number of checkers (using Keith, Ward, or whatever), then apply Kleinman's or this Metric formula to the adjusted pip count. I know K isn't designed to give you accurate winning percentages when you plug in each sides EPC, how about M? M worked fine in this case but I suspect it, like K, won't work too well most of the time when you're dealing with EPC #'s.

i.e. Side on roll with an EPC of 29 vs. 30 for the oppt. We know this is a marginal take/pass for the trailer with the side on roll a 78/22 or so fav. K says the side on roll in a 29-30 race gives the roller about 68% chances while M says it's about 65%. Using M: 50% + (62-3/4) (1) = ~65%. Or am I missing something about the Metric formula?

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