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Can we justify a double?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 14 July 2011, at 5:34 p.m.

In Response To: Can we justify a double? (David)

You can run it through a bot and it will tell you a certain percentage of drops that are needed to make the decision practically correct. There is a huge conceptual misunderstanding about this number that many players have though. Realize that this number is based on bot level play from then on which is a pretty ridiculous assumption if you are currently thinking that the opponent would be passing.

In particular note that if you hold the cube here there may be a chance for a bigger cube error from the opponent later on and that aspect is completely ignored in the % of wrong takes needed that the compter tells you. For example suppose you get a non 6 and then a 6. A pretty common sequence. Will your opponent take that? It would be less of an error than dropping the original position so seems more likely for that to happen. You do not give up any theoretical equity at all by cubing then but your Fogerlundish try really backfires in a significant way on his corret takes.

If you just KNOW your opponent will drop like Ray says he sometimes does then it would be a cube of course.

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