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Rollout: 61P-61P-63S-54

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 15 July 2011, at 2:08 p.m.

In Response To: 61P-61P-63S-54 (Timothy Chow)

Thanks to all, especially Nack, for the analysis. This was a game I played against XG. At the time, I played 13/4*. Some time later, reviewing the position after I had forgotten what I had originally played, I felt that 24/20 13/8 was best. I didn't like running without a race lead.

Most of the discussion has centered around H versus R, but according to the rollout below, S is better than H, so it shouldn't be dismissed too quickly.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 151
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-EBB---cD---bce----B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout124/15eq: -0.149
Player:
Opponent:		 46.75% (G:10.63% B:0.49%)
53.25% (G:15.45% B:0.55%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.163...-0.135)
Duration: 5 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout124/20 13/8eq: -0.184 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		 45.78% (G:10.46% B:0.42%)
54.22% (G:14.84% B:0.59%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.198...-0.170)
Duration: 5 hours 10 minutes
3.Rollout113/4* eq: -0.227 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		 44.53% (G:12.75% B:0.51%)
55.47% (G:16.15% B:1.03%)		Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.242...-0.212)
Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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