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Race mania - your opinion is needed

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 17 July 2011, at 6:21 a.m.

In Response To: Race mania - your opinion is needed (Mochy)

First we should assume the take point and recube take points are close to money even though it's likely because of the score the recube take point is ever so slightly higher. After that let's see what the Keith Count gives us:

Adjusted count of 84 for Blue.
Adjusted count of 83 for White.

According to the Keith count this would be a double and a close pass. The contact will favor the taker of course with the blot leaving 61 and all other aces basically wasting a turn. This combined with the fractional higher recube vig may make this a take, I suspect it's very close. If Falafel's opponent took it was definitely right of him to take. If it would have been however Falafel's decision on whether to take or pass, it would be a huge blunder for him to take this position

I see no reason not to trust the Keith count here but there are of course more ways to skin a cat. We could try the effective pip count and estimate both sides and see what we come up with. I would estimate that Blue on average wastes about 8.5 pips from here bringing his epc total to 81.5. This would make it between an eleven and twelve roll position meaning for money the point of last take would have the trailer down ~8.5 effective pips.

The estimation for White's epc may be a bit tougher but my wag figure would have him wasting on average 13 pips. There are a couple ways to go about this and perhaps the easiest would be to imagine how his checkers come home. He can't even hope to make the epc of a flat position which wastes 10 pips. He should clearly waste a few more pips than this and 13 is an ok ballpark. This makes his epc 90 meaning he would be right on the border of the take/pass decision.

I'm sure there are more ways but since both of my methods came up with about the same answer I see no reason not to trust the numbers.

Stick

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