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Race mania - your opinion is needed

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Sunday, 17 July 2011, at 12:09 p.m.

In Response To: Race mania - your opinion is needed (Mochy)

Stick is right about there being many ways of "skinning a cat" but the best way to skin this cat is through applying the "Dual E-Pip/Metric Formula and Ward Count (wastage only!). Equally good is Ward/Kleinman/E-pips. I wouldn't waste my time on any other method/approach in these types of races.

To approach this position using the former:

1. Adjust for wastage using Ward, i.e. add 2 pips to white's count for the extra on the ace; blue has zero to add on.

2. Applying the Metric Formula 50+(62-PLT)/(PLT+L)*(L), PLT: Point of Last Take, L: Lead in Pips. To obtain the PLT use the "Nack57 Rule" but replace 33 as the subtractor for 32. Therefore, (73-32)*2, 82; the nearest SQ is 9. Inserting the numbers show the following: 50+(62-9)/(9+7)*(7). Note! Multiply L to 1 decimal place only i.e. 53/16, 3.3*7 = 23.1+50, 73.1. The Kleinman Count+Ward show a ratio of .81 or 73.1%.

3. E-Pips: for each side, compute "pips to the six". White 24, blue 4, (24-4)*21%, 4.2%. The value of a crossover is 0.5% and white has 2 additional crossovers at 1%. The Dual E-Pip/Metric Formula for this position is 73.1+5.2 = 78.3%.

If you have faith in the XG2 rollouts, you be happy to learn a figure of 78.39 is generated.

Have a nice day!

NBM

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