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BGonline.org Forums
Race mania - your opinion is needed
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Race mania - your opinion is needed (Mochy)
Date: Sunday, 17 July 2011, at 4:26 p.m.
OK my OTB method here for a race that is a hybrid between pips and rolls.
Pips obviously matter here but it is very bad to have 3 checkers on the ace pt for White. I penalize 2 pips for the 2nd and 3 checkers there in this type of position, but things are worse than 4 more pips for White since he may roll poorly trying to cross over and crossovers matter more as we approach a roll oriented position rather than a pip oriented one so I add another penalty pip to White for a total of 5.
A typical 73 pip vs 83 pip race is a pass with about 20% CPW. However, White hits 22/1296 and wins most of those and Blue may roll an ace and waste a bit (White could then roll his own bad ace however).
OK so this looks like something in between 21 and 22% CPW for White so I flip a coin to decide on the take if playing for money noting that there is the very sick chance to lose a G on a very bad day.
Does this score make much of a difference for an initial race cube going only from 1 to 2? I doubt it matters much.
Flip a coin here and decide if playing an equal player...but vs Falafel and considering how well he's been playing lately (I watched his Giants Final vs Sax) almost everyone should take even if it is a small pass.
From a technical standpoint, I don't see how it is possible to make much of an error with the drop/take decision here.
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