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Rollout: Hit or cover?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 18 July 2011, at 12:29 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or cover? (Karl Frogner)

This position of Karl's surprised me a lot so I rolled it out (for money), along with a couple of variants. Apparently, Blue is short enough of time to escape that being able to hit and escape the rear checker outweighs covering. It doesn't take too much to tip the balance, though, as the variants illustrate.

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		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 170 Money session Jacoby pip: 111 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bcBCBABB----A----a-bbcbAA-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	24/17*	eq: +1.083
	Player: Opponent: 76.52% (G:55.59% B:14.45%) 23.48% (G:3.46% B:0.25%) Conf: ± 0.009 (+1.074...+1.092) Duration: 6 hours 01 minute
2.	Rollout1	12/5	eq: +1.034 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 74.87% (G:54.99% B:13.64%) 25.13% (G:2.87% B:0.12%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+1.024...+1.044) Duration: 4 hours 14 minutes
3.	Rollout2	23/17* 5/4	eq: +1.007 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 74.53% (G:53.43% B:13.32%) 25.47% (G:2.79% B:0.15%) Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.989...+1.025) Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
4.	Rollout2	23/17* 12/11	eq: +0.992 (-0.091)
	Player: Opponent: 73.90% (G:54.14% B:14.47%) 26.10% (G:4.41% B:0.30%) Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.972...+1.012) Duration: 49 minutes 16 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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Variant 1:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 170 Money session Jacoby pip: 101 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bcBCBABB----AA---a-bbcb-A-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	12/5	eq: +1.167
	Player: Opponent: 78.08% (G:57.83% B:14.14%) 21.92% (G:1.08% B:0.06%) Conf: ± 0.011 (+1.156...+1.178) Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/17*	eq: +1.134 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 77.35% (G:56.61% B:15.52%) 22.65% (G:2.60% B:0.20%) Conf: ± 0.013 (+1.121...+1.147) Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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Variant 2:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 171 Money session Jacoby pip: 111 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bcBCBABB----A---a--bbcbAA-:1:-1:1:61:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.	Rollout1	12/5	eq: +1.004
	Player: Opponent: 74.15% (G:54.17% B:13.21%) 25.85% (G:2.98% B:0.13%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.994...+1.014) Duration: 3 hours 38 minutes
2.	Rollout1	23/16*	eq: +0.987 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 74.15% (G:53.76% B:13.79%) 25.85% (G:4.45% B:0.30%) Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.976...+0.998) Duration: 3 hours 49 minutes
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or cover?
  Karl Frogner -- Saturday, 9 July 2011, at 11:10 p.m.
  • Hit or cover?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 2:18 a.m.
  • Hit or cover?
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 8:39 a.m.
    • Initial computer feedback
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 9:03 a.m.
  • Hit or cover?
    Udo Moerschbach -- Sunday, 10 July 2011, at 2:39 p.m.
  • Hit or cover?
    Turz -- Monday, 11 July 2011, at 9:20 a.m.
  • Rollout: Hit or cover?
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 July 2011, at 12:29 a.m.