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BGonline.org Forums
A not-so-daily quiz
Posted By: Stick In Response To: A not-so-daily quiz (Kevin Whyte)
Date: Tuesday, 19 July 2011, at 5:02 a.m.
Also, when posting positions try to make the person to play the roll the bottom player. It's something we all forget about from time to time but it definitely makes it easier for readers to visualize.
#1. In these types of positions, double aces to play with making the bar point and making the 4pt both a possibility and the rest of the play playing reasonably however, it's almost always right to make the 4pt. Knowing that I would still look at two plays here.
- 8/7 6/4 5/4 - What I would call my reflex play. It follows the rule of making the inner board point, duplicates 6s as nearly all of them play pretty damn well already for my opponent including the non natural sixes of 51 and 42, and tries to prime when behind in the race. Slotting when you have one point to fill in in a gapped prime is always very powerful and a hitting exchange now is the worst case scenario where you have the bigger board.
- 9/7 8/7 5/4 - There is some duplication involved but not as much as the play before. Also, when missed the prime isn't as likely to be extended to a 5 prime because there is only 1 spare cover instead of 2 with the other play. It is 1 less shot but that doesn't really matter here. I don't think this play is better.
#2. Ok I admit I would next this problem. I have no idea what you could have played here other than 21/20 8/4. You are way behind in the race so you don't want to give up coverage of your opponent's inner board but you definitely need to anchor so he can't unstack on you making 21/20 'forced'. After that there are only two 4s left to play, slot the better point.
#3. This play I'd have to give some thought to. I would consider both hitting plays and making the ten point. To save time on my clock, I would probably only analyze the standard hitting play of 14/10 8/5* v. making the 10pt.
- 14/10 13/10 - From my double match point study of 1 checker back in a race trying to hop a 4 prime I noticed that the win % of the person with the 4 prime is roughly equal to what the pip count is. (when the count is close) That may not come out right because I've never tried to put it in to words but I know what I mean, that's all that matters. For example here if we make the 10pt we will be ahead by 2 pips in the race but not on roll. If it was a straight race that would mean we're actually down 2 pips and we'd be a 45%/55% dog in the game. Here however, with the 4 prime, I don't make the adjustment for the other player being on roll due to the many variations where he fails to escape and estimate the winning chances as 55% in my favor as if I were up those 2 pips and 45% for my opponent.
- 14/10 8/5* - We are hit back immediately 16 times. This is one of those problems I know from experience if I simply I'm not going to be far off. Say the 16 hits are losers and the 20 non hits are winners. I know there are many many variations where I can get hit and hit back or maybe he can enter and not have lost and blah blah blah. Again, we can simplify and ignore these assuming my ~56%/44% split. If my estimates are right then hitting must be correct.
#4. This play also jumps out at me. 4(2) 1(2). This play is what I call a pressure play. Your opponent had better do something or the cube is coming his way. With any other of the washy racing plays there is no pressure put on the position. The opponent will play something and then you'll roll, no chance for a cube. If you make the two points you leave twos duplicated and put him in fear when he fails to anchor up. You'll have both a racing lead and attacking chances, pretty powerful position.
#5. So far down in the race with your opponent threatening to go next roll on all 7s and any roll of a 9 or higher hitting is a must. It helps that his board is so uber funky that you have life after death when you are hit. After that the only logical 6 is 13/7.
Stick
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