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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Turz
Date: Thursday, 21 July 2011, at 12:25 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

TP for Black is ~10/35 not considering recube vig. So 11/36 wins are enough to take.

RDP for White is ~12/22 not considering the possibility to redouble next roll. So at least 20 wins are needed to redouble.

If White rolls 21 or 32 (4 rolls) it's a Redouble/Pass, so 4/36 losses.

If White rolls 44/55/66, it's an immediate win (3/36 wins).

If White rolls 33/22/65/64/54, it's almost a 1-roll position, so it's almost 5/6 of 8 wins (let's say 6.5/36 wins and 1.5/36 losses).

63/53/43 lead to a 4+1 position, so only 21/11/31/32 miss => 5/6 of 29/36 means 24/36 i.e. 2/3, so 4/36 wins and 2/36 losses.

62/52/42 leave 4+2 which is about fifty-fifty => 3/36 wins and 3/36 losses (maybe a bit more wins).

11 and 31 leave 4+4, which is a powerful redouble to 8, don't know if it has to be passed but I would count at least 2/36 losses and less than 1/36 wins.

61/51/41 leave 4+3, which is too long to calculate considering redoubles and so on, but the total up to now is 17.5 wins vs 12.5 losses, so there is enough to take and I'm in doubt about the redouble.

So I would say R/T against XG+ but against a weaker opponent I would not redouble.

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