OTB I'd have played 14/6 and that was what was played in the match after some thought.
However, the clever 14/9 14/11 is better since it is quite risky for White to hit only 1 blot and break his anchor. I've seen this idea before, but the real trick is realizing OTB that you even have a problem! The next issue OTB is how much mental energy and time do we want to spend on something like this once we are sure we have a problem.
Bots can do the lookahead very easily and quickly whereas it is much more difficult for most human brains.
          
 
         
 | | White is Fabio Gullotta
score: 2
pip: 145 | | 25 point match | pip: 115
score: 1
Blue is Takumitsu Suzuki |
|
| XGID=-----BDAB-bb-D---bBbcbb---:1:1:-1:53:2:1:0:25:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 14/11 14/9 | eq: +0.3288 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.63% (G:10.33% B:0.23%)
31.37% (G:4.25% B:0.16%) | Conf.: ±0.0035 (+0.3253...+0.3324) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 14/6 | eq: +0.2608 (-0.0680) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.26% (G:9.84% B:0.24%)
33.74% (G:4.67% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ±0.0040 (+0.2568...+0.2648) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/2 | eq: +0.1970 (-0.1318) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.97% (G:7.67% B:0.17%)
35.03% (G:6.25% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ±0.0043 (+0.1927...+0.2014) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 14/9 5/2 | eq: +0.1968 (-0.1320) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.17% (G:9.85% B:0.27%)
35.83% (G:5.99% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ±0.0037 (+0.1931...+0.2005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 15/10 5/2 | eq: +0.1805 (-0.1483) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.72% (G:13.02% B:0.39%)
37.28% (G:6.24% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ±0.0043 (+0.1763...+0.1848) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83467239
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2