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RO and analysis

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 24 July 2011, at 5:50 p.m.

In Response To: Semiblitz cube from the MC finals (neilkaz)

OTB Gullotta thought a while and then passed, but the reality is that he still has decent chances here if he can survive the semi-blitz attack or simply enter soon, often with a 2nd anchor. There are only 9 checkers in the zone and with White having a bit of forward structure he has some chances for a turnaround after a quick hit. I also did a RO with White not having his 7 pt (5 on the 6pt and 3 on the 8 pt) and that resulted in a close pass. But here, Blue just doesn't yet have enough ammo to put finish things often enough to force a pass.





White is Fabio Gullotta

score: 4
pip: 188
25 point match
pip: 133
score: 3

Blue is Takumitsu Suzuki
XGID=------DBB--aeB--ab-cCbaA-A:0:0:-1:00:4:3:0:25:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.545% (G:28.247% B:0.916%) 66.171% (G:28.379% B:0.893%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.455% (G:5.317% B:0.200%) 33.829% (G:5.556% B:0.211%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5710 +1.1421
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8162 (-0.0529)±0.0054 (+0.8108..+0.8215)
Double/Take:+0.8690±0.0094 (+0.8596..+0.8785)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1310)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83467239
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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