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31P-31P-51S-62 vs 31P-31P-52S-62

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 24 July 2011, at 10:58 p.m.

In Response To: 31P-31P-51S-62 vs 31P-31P-52S-62 (mtuhtan)


2O ' ' ' '5X '4X ' ' '5O

1X1X ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

51S-62



2O ' ' ' '5X '4X ' ' '5O

1X '1X ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

52S-62


In this post, I make reference to a couple of older posts where I discuss the comparison of 51S-62 and 52S-62. Can anyone find those posts?

I'll briefly recap here anyway. In 51S-62 (above, left), the extra hit on the 11pt (64 54 63) plus the fact that none of the 6 numbers is duplicated causes R (Run, 24/16) to be .03 better than S (Split, 24/18 13/11). Compare to 52S-62 (above right): only 5 numbers hit on the 11pt (62 64 44) and the latter 3 of those numbers are duplicated; there, S is tied with (actually a hair better than) R.

Now let's look at Miran's positions below, where the 5pts are made. Below left, If Blue plays S, 1 fewer number hits (only 64 54, no 63) instead of 1 more number (swing of 2). Below right, the same 5 numbers hit (64 62 44) that hit in the simpler 52S-62 position (above right).

Above left, R beats S by .03. Below left, that edge should disappear or even reverse, in part because 63 no longer hits on the 11pt, and in part because of the reason mentioned in the next paragraph.

Above right, S is tied with R. With the 5pts made below right, I think S is somewhat better than R because White's hitting aces are less potent (they strip the 8pt).

Having possession of his 5pt, Blue has the interesting third candidate play of O (Outer, 13/5). For the most part White won't anchor with aces (the 23pt is too deep, and White has a convenient 6/5). By contrast, for the most part White will anchor with her deuces, thereby diminishing the value of Blue's 5pt builder. After Blue plays O, White's full anchor count seems to be 13 vs 8 (i.e., 64 62 52 32 22 31 21 on the left, vs 65 32 31 21 on the right) and her settling for the conservative 24/23 13/10 is due only to the threat of Blue's 5pt builder. In short, I believe O is considerably more effective (and probably best) on the left than on the right.


2O ' ' '2X4X '3X ' ' '5O

1X1X ' '2O4O '2O ' ' '4X

31P-31P-51S-62



2O ' ' '2X4X '3X ' ' '5O

1X '1X '2O4O '2O ' ' '4X

31P-31P-52S-62


Nack

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