I'm getting pretty decent at using Kieth count to accurately see the winning chances for each side in a race situation. However, I think positions like this come up very often:
           
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AA-BBCB-AA-bB-aca-bbca---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.31% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) | 75.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 24.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.506 | +1.013 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.791 (-0.060) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.851 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.149) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
There is little chance of contact here, but it cannot be ignored completely. So my question is, how do we factor this in and how much should we judge this to decrease (or increase in some cases) our winning chances?
Here, I moved the two checkers back, but kept the same pip count for each player. Blue's winning chances went down just a little bit, but it is still a double/take.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AA-BBCBAA--b-Baca-bbca---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.89% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) | 74.92% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.11% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) | 25.08% (G:0.02% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.498 | +0.997 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.779 (-0.055) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.835 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.165) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Here it went down just a little more, keeping same pip count.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AA-BBCCA---b--Bda-bcba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.47% (G:0.22% B:0.02%) | 72.57% (G:0.13% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.53% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) | 27.43% (G:0.10% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.451 | +0.904 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.690 (-0.033) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.723 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.277) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Here even more:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AA-BBCCA--b---Bda-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.38% (G:0.46% B:0.02%) | 68.57% (G:0.44% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.62% (G:0.51% B:0.02%) | 31.43% (G:0.53% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.367 | +0.741 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.528 (-0.010) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.538 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.462) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Here it switches:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AA-BBCCA-b----Bda-abcb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.48% (G:1.24% B:0.06%) | 66.56% (G:0.96% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.52% (G:0.75% B:0.01%) | 33.44% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.335 | +0.667 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.463 | |
| Double/Take: | +0.444 (-0.019) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.537) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.2% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Now let's take this position, keeping the same pip count, but moving blue's outer pieces into his board which may make him bury checkers while trying to avoid leaving a blot and will kill good 6's in the future.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--AABCCBA--b---Bda-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.58% (G:0.51% B:0.02%) | 68.67% (G:0.56% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.42% (G:0.40% B:0.01%) | 31.33% (G:0.43% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.373 | +0.749 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.531 (-0.018) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.548 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.452) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--AABCD-B--b---Bda-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 68.35% (G:0.45% B:0.01%) | 68.38% (G:0.33% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.65% (G:0.50% B:0.01%) | 31.62% (G:0.43% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.367 | +0.733 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.527 (-0.001) | |
| Double/Take: | +0.528 | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.472) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Ay, There's the rub!
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 98
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--A-BDE-A--b---Bda-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.68% (G:0.79% B:0.03%) | 67.57% (G:0.51% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.32% (G:0.61% B:0.01%) | 32.43% (G:0.54% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.356 | +0.703 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.506 | |
| Double/Take: | +0.500 (-0.005) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.494) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.1% |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
Can someone help me with answering the question of how much contact is too much contact, and how much timing is not enough?
-Max