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BGonline.org Forums
Help with contact situations - Kieth Count (or other racing formulas)
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Help with contact situations - Kieth Count (or other racing formulas) (Max Levenstein)
Date: Monday, 25 July 2011, at 7:19 p.m.
There is little chance of contact here, but it cannot be ignored completely
Yes, it can and should be in certain situations. In the first two positions you posted with contact being one and two points away I whould ignore it completely. There will never be a shot left though the contact can come in to play by numbers like [62 61 52 51] etc.. being rolled and having to play them deeply in one's own board instead of release a point. This is rare and the effect is uber small.
Realize that changing the position and keeping the pip count the same how you did is the way to do it but don't think because the pip count is the same and the position is roughly the same that where the checkers are have no effect on the win % either. That will effect how their numbers play and how much wastage they will have later in the bearoff.
When the checkers are three points apart is where I would start to make some adjustment in general. This depends heavily on the position of course as you could have contact with points only one apart if there were no other outfield checkers left to play so that 61 would leave a shot for eg. But to generalize I would say three points apart is where you'll see some difference, depending again on the position at hand and how long the player has to clear that point and how much wastage he'll be forced to play while trying to clear it. If he has more than sufficient time to do so I wouldn't even count three points apart as contact.
Stick
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