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Help with contact situations - Cross over with a 1?

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 26 July 2011, at 5:30 p.m.

In Response To: Help with contact situations - Kieth Count (or other racing formulas) (Daniel Murphy)

Thanks for this analysis. Breaking out contact v. simple EPC tradeoffs helps me understand these positions.

Daniel Murphy wrote:

In the first position... the chance of you losing by not being able to clear the midpoint is about the same as the chance of rolling 6-1 5-1 4-1 3-1 or 1-1 four times in a row followed by a 6-1 followed by a hit, which is very close to zero.

In the second position... chance of contact losing the game for you is about the same as rolling 6-1 5-1 4-1 3-1 2-2 6-2 5-2 4-2 or 3-2 four times followed by 6-1 followed by a hit, that's about 0.3%.

You seem to imply that you would play x-1 by pushing an inside checker with the 1. My instinct -- in the first two positions at least -- is to crossover, playing 7/6, and giving myself the best racing position (and lowest EPC). At what point is it going to be better to leave a checker outside?

Mike

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