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BGonline.org Forums
Help with contact situations - Cross over with a 1?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Help with contact situations - Cross over with a 1? (Taper_Mike)
Date: Tuesday, 26 July 2011, at 8:47 p.m.
Breaking out contact v. simple EPC tradeoffs helps me understand these positions.
Yes, there are several things going on as the positions are shifted. The chance of getting hit changes; shifting may markedly change the relative Effective Pip Counts; fewer clearing numbers mean a higher chance of rolls played inefficiently inside the homeboard instead of clearing, and the larger the doublet that is blocked, the more inefficiently you will play what ought to be an excellent racing number (on the other hand at least one or your opponen't race-evening doublets is blocked!).
But Max may be on the trail of a simple and fairly accurate CPW adjustment for positions where you need to clear one point against opponent's midpoint: if the point's your 13 or 14, treat them as essentially noncontact, and subtract X%, Y% and Z% from the noncontact CPW calculation if your point is on your 15, 16 or 17. The number of spares you have, though, is another complication.
I'd just add that I seem to recall that earlier bot version often had troubles with CPW and cube decisions in midpoint vs. midpoint positions, because the bots seemed to "think" they were contact positions even though they essentially weren't. They're better now, eh? One could check bot analysis vs. rollout results for Max's positions to find out how well they're doing now.
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