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Re: OLM Wednesday Dec. 20th

Posted By: stremba
Date: Wednesday, 20 December 2006, at 2:38 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Wednesday Dec. 20th (Stick)

My vote is for 14/13 6/3*. After 14/11 6/5, almost all of Stick's returns either allow him to make an anchor or hit our indirect shot. He has 31 good returns after the passive play, 11 of which hit our indirect shot (64, 44, 43, 62, 52, and 61), 19 of which allow him to anchor on either the 3 or the 4 point (63, 53, 33, 42, 32, 22, 51, 41, 31, 21 and 11), and 55 after which it probably wouldn't matter which play we made. After the hitting play, Stick can hit our 3 pt blot with 17 rolls (63, 53, 43, 33, 32, 31, 42, 22, 11 and 21) and can anchor with 15 rolls (31, 32, 64, 54, 44, 42, 41, 22 and 11). Note, however, that he both anchors and hits with 22, 32, 31, and 11. That leaves 9 returns that neither hit nor anchor. Further, it's not clear that 11 should be played by hitting and anchoring as he might well be better off making his 5 point instead. Also, after the hit, we have 4 returns where Stick dances and we likely have a pretty good double. I can't see us having a cube after any sequence where we make the passive play.

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