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Welcome to the blunder. We've got fun and games...

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 27 July 2011, at 5:26 p.m.

In Response To: Welcome to the blunder. We've got fun and games... (rory)

I'd narrow the choice to 6/1 3/1 (weighing its better spare vs. a faster bearoff with 6/1/ 6/4) or 14/9 3/1. 8/3 8/6 looks wrong. The 8 point is a landing spot for the blot, preserves your chances for a double shot when opponent leaves your bar point, and lets 6-1 hit your blot. 14/9 3/1, if you're missed, does nearly solve the problem of bringing your blot home, and gives you a playable spare, and will also gain whenever you hit a blot and you still have a 5 point board and you wouldn't have remade a 5 point board after some other play, but 14/9 3/1 increases immediate shots from four to eleven. Seven more immediate hits is a lot (!) especially since all hit/fans lead to double/pass. I'd play 6/1 3/1.

14/9 3/1, if you're missed, sure leaves you with a lovelier, stronger looking position. Maybe it's right at DMP, where you don't immediately lose an extra 7/36*11/36*25/36 = 4% of all games.

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